Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:16:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
51 0x51fe…7898 crypto 213 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$582 (-10%) realized −$582 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate60%127W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days−$228
14 days−$228
30 days−$228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$507
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -52.0% -56.6% 33% 33% -56.4%
≤30d 3 -52.0% -56.6% 33% 33% -56.4%
≤90d 5 -71.2% -74.0% 20% 20% -59.3%
all 213 -13.9% -22.1% 60% 54% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 54% -17.3%
10% -29.5% 39% -25.2%
15% -36.3% 28% -32.4%
20% -42.6% 13% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% too few recent
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$20 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$582
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses127 / 86
Open positions0
Markets (closed)213 / 213
History coverage150d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 213 Trades
no open positions (58 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 23 $147 +$65 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $192 −$192 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Apr 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 22 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Mar 25 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Mar 25 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Mar 04 $10 +$9 +90%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 3PM ET Mar 04 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Mar 04 $50 +$29 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Mar 04 $70 −$69 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Mar 04 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12PM ET Mar 04 $20 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Mar 04 $10 −$9 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Mar 04 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Mar 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Mar 04 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Mar 03 $7 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 03 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7PM ET Mar 03 $104 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Mar 03 $90 +$34 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Mar 03 $25 −$17 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2AM ET Mar 03 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 02 $91 +$13 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Mar 02 $30 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4PM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Mar 02 $20 +$8 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Mar 02 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Mar 02 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Mar 02 $15 +$8 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Mar 02 $51 +$49 +95%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 02 $44 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Mar 02 $41 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Mar 02 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Mar 02 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Mar 02 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Mar 02 $24 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3AM ET Mar 02 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 23 $33 −$32 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7AM ET Feb 23 $32 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4AM ET Feb 23 $41 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 23 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Feb 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Feb 23 $5 +$9 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Feb 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Feb 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $212 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $147 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $192 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $29 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $13 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $10 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 90d
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 3PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $79 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $79 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $50 111d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $70 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $9 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $28 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $20 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $21 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $10 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $9 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $9 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $7 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 460 history records