Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:38:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51ff…3bbc world 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 332d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$12 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate32%33W / 70L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$5
other 21% +$9
politics 21% −$2
sports 11% $0
economics 6% $0
crypto 3% +$1
finance 2% +$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 43% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 21 +0.6% -8.9% 33% 5% -9.1%
≤90d 78 +4.1% -5.8% 29% 4% -9.2%
all 103 +3.2% -6.6% 32% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 4% -9.3%
10% -15.6% 1% -17.9%
15% -23.7% 1% -25.9%
20% -31.2% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.32 per $1 lost it wins $2.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

332d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses33 / 70
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage332d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 55¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $46 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $48 −$2 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $50 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $101 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $54 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $292 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $56 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $164 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $56 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $50 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $60 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $103 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $49 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $57 +$2 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $45 +$7 +17%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $49 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 20 $45 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $45 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 18 $46 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $47 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $8 $0 +2%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $52 $0 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $119 +$1 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 05 $278 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 04 $143 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by May 31? May 03 $51 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? May 03 $46 $0 +0%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? May 02 $91 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 30 $160 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $45 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $69 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $179 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $2 −$1 -54%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $52 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $54 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $101 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $3 +$10 +338%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $42 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $44 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $79 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $203 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $49 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 7h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 32h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $31 46h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $16 46h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $46 47h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $46 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $44 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 76¢ $49 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $50 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $50 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $49 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $4 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $47 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $47 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $52 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $52 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $54 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $54 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $54 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $54 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $20 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $25 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $10 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $47 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $56 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $53 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.21 · official $47.99 (match) · 428 history records