Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:06:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
52 0x5201…0c88 crypto 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$388 (-15%) realized −$368 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%28W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$313
world 19% +$70
other 17% −$137
crypto 6% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -52.6% -57.2% 0% 0% -19.0%
≤30d 2 -52.6% -57.2% 0% 0% -19.0%
≤90d 2 -52.6% -57.2% 0% 0% -19.0%
all 70 -8.7% -17.4% 40% 36% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 36% -23.7%
10% -25.3% 33% -31.0%
15% -32.5% 27% -37.7%
20% -39.1% 21% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$20 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$368
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses28 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage104d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 71¢ 50¢ $70 $50 −$20 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $93 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Sporting CP vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: Both Teams to Score Mar 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Mar 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Playoffs Mar 17 $50 −$18 -35%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - ESL Challenge Mar 17 $25 −$2 -10%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs MASONIC (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Mar 17 $98 +$55 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 17 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 17 $10 −$5 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 17 $16 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 17 $15 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 17 $15 +$13 +85%
Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Playoff Mar 17 $60 −$57 -96%
Sydney FC vs. Melbourne City FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Spurs vs. Clippers Mar 17 $150 +$36 +24%
Suns vs. Celtics Mar 17 $117 +$33 +28%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-03-16? Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brentford FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw? Mar 16 $10 +$22 +216%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-16? Mar 16 $85 +$21 +24%
Counter-Strike: Favbet vs Sangal (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Group S Mar 16 $72 +$12 +17%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 16 $145 −$27 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 16 $2 +$2 +82%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs Ground Zero (BO3) - ANZC Locals B Mar 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Arcade Esports (BO1) - ANZC Locals Mar 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Mindfreak vs Abyssal (BO1) - ANZC Locals Brisbane: Gro Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-03-13? Mar 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $43 +$22 +52%
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs MAGICOS (BO3) - CCT South America S Mar 15 $15 −$2 -16%
Counter-Strike: OG vs NIP (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playoffs Mar 15 $79 +$46 +59%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 10 $101 −$74 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 10 $2 +$1 +56%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 10 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 10 $101 +$41 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 09 $2 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 09 $11 −$9 -82%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - European Pro League S Mar 09 $108 −$97 -90%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $329 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Pistons vs. Heat Mar 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $5 +$37 +739%
Will Valencia CF vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? Mar 08 $10 +$26 +259%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 08 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $15 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 71¢ $71 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $88 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $93 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 21h
Sporting CP vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $100 93d
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag BUY Ursa 57¢ $32 93d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Playoffs SELL HOTU 34¢ $32 93d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - ESL Challenge SELL ex-Zero Tenacity 36¢ $0 93d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Playoffs BUY HOTU 53¢ $50 93d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - ESL Challenge SELL ex-Zero Tenacity 39¢ $22 93d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - ESL Challenge BUY ex-Zero Tenacity 43¢ $25 93d
Counter-Strike: Omega vs MASONIC (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe SELL Omega 100¢ $153 93d
Counter-Strike: Omega vs MASONIC (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe BUY Omega 64¢ $98 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $10 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $5 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $19 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $16 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $28 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $15 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $12 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $15 94d
Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Playoff SELL ECSTATIC 2¢ $3 94d
Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Playoff BUY ECSTATIC 58¢ $60 94d
Sydney FC vs. Melbourne City FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $27 94d
Spurs vs. Clippers SELL Spurs 94¢ $186 94d
Spurs vs. Clippers BUY Spurs 76¢ $150 94d
Suns vs. Celtics SELL Celtics 100¢ $150 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.79 · official $49.79 (match) · 137 history records