Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:10:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5201…34c3 weather 586 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$830 (-1%) realized −$681 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate93%521W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day139.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days+$96
14 days−$1,180
30 days−$681
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$673
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 -1.9% -11.2% 91% 3% -9.0%
≤30d 558 +3.3% -6.5% 93% 3% -10.7%
≤90d 558 +3.3% -6.5% 93% 3% -10.7%
all 558 +3.3% -6.5% 93% 3% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover139.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 3% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 2% -19.3%
15% -23.6% 1% -27.1%
20% -31.1% 1% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early 7.800665413543095% → late -1.1218229963361677% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$55 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$3,225
Realized−$681
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses521 / 37
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions28
Markets (closed)558 / 586
History coverage23d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day139.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 558 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $234 $235 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 16? No 97¢ 98¢ $226 $226 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $221 $223 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? No 97¢ 98¢ $214 $215 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 15? No 99¢ 98¢ $209 $208 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $188 $190 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $175 $175 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $170 $171 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? No 98¢ 98¢ $170 $170 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on June 16? No 99¢ 98¢ $161 $161 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? No 98¢ 98¢ $153 $153 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $149 $152 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $127 $127 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $117 $117 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $97 $97 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $89 $89 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 16? No 98¢ 98¢ $79 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $77 $77 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $69 $70 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? No 98¢ 97¢ $62 $61 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $58 $59 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $307 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 15? Jun 14 $124 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $38 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? Jun 14 $214 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 14 $191 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 14 $218 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $211 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $414 +$14 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $32 −$5 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $216 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 13? Jun 14 $42 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $39 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $217 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 13? Jun 14 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $114 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $327 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $130 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $188 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 13? Jun 13 $376 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $375 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 14? Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $277 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 13 $208 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C or higher on June 13 Jun 13 $94 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 102°F or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 86°F or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $229 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $207 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 12 $434 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $314 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 12? Jun 12 $129 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $307 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 12 $340 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $411 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $10 12m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 14m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $5 17m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 26m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $6 28m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $8 38m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 43m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $10 43m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $9 43m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $58 47m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $92 49m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $210 57m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $38 4h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $38 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,225.33 · official $3,225.33 (match) · 3500 history records