Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:32:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

52
0x5204…23c2
crypto · 419 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$81,382 -143%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$81,483 · open +$101
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1,892
Realized−$81,483
Unrealized+$101
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses224 / 644
Whale WR (big bets)26%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)868 / 419
Avg bet$135
Trades / day1734.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 10 History 868 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81,483
7 days−$81,483
14 days−$81,483
30 days−$81,483
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will a candidate win the 2026 Colombian presidential election in the first round? No 85¢ 96¢ $426 $480 +$55 (+13%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 50¢ 100¢ $227 $451 +$224 (+99%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 66¢ 76¢ $301 $348 +$48 (+16%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 53¢ 100¢ $155 $292 +$138 (+89%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 88¢ 96¢ $68 $74 +$6 (+9%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 75¢ 74¢ $68 $67 −$1 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 53¢ 58¢ $57 $63 +$6 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 60¢ 50¢ $57 $47 −$10 (-17%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 41¢ 36¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Up 68¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 81¢ 29¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-64%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $203 $0 −$203 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $103 $0 −$103 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $347 $0 −$347 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $103 $0 −$103 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $252 $0 −$252 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $456 $0 −$456 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $259 $0 −$259 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $212 $0 −$212 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $202 −$202 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $203 −$406 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $103 −$206 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $347 −$347 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $252 −$252 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $456 −$456 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $259 −$259 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $212 −$212 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $205 −$205 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $138 −$138 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $374 −$374 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $172 −$172 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $166 −$166 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $242 −$484 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $355 −$355 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $203 −$407 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $235 −$235 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $627 −$627 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $452 −$452 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $644 −$644 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $241 −$241 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $197 −$197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $455 −$455 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $191 −$191 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $126 −$126 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% +$3,706
other 2% +$158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $248 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $45 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $13 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $13 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $13 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $7 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $248 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-54.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 868 -49.4% -54.3% 26% 23% -60.8%
≤30d 868 -49.4% -54.3% 26% 23% -60.8%
≤90d 868 -49.4% -54.3% 26% 23% -60.8%
all 868 -49.4% -54.3% 26% 23% -60.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1734.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -54.3% 23% -60.8%
10% ← realistic here -58.6% 20% -64.5%
15% -62.6% 17% -68.0%
20% -66.3% 15% -71.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,892.48 · official $1,892.59 (match) · 3500 history records