Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:40:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5206…7bd0 politics 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,358 (-2%) realized −$2,358 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate28%36W / 94L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$908per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$859now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$9
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$68
other 26% −$178
sports 11% −$2,079
world 6% −$3
economics 3% −$5
culture 2% $0
tech 2% −$24
crypto 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 55 -2.1% -11.4% 5% 0% -10.5%
all 130 -1.4% -10.8% 28% 9% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 9% -11.3%
10% -19.3% 9% -19.8%
15% -27.1% 8% -27.6%
20% -34.2% 7% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,349) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$29 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$859
Realized−$2,358
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses36 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)130 / 132
History coverage153d
Avg bet$908
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $641 $641 +$0 (+0%)
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $218 $218 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $1,067 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $3,142 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $230 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $226 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $228 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $207 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,937 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $1,065 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,993 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,117 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,009 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $962 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2,729 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,255 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,077 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,905 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,695 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $991 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $2,085 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $419 +$2 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $1,698 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $759 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $826 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,684 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,145 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1,649 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,038 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,265 −$2 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 19 $579 −$3 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 11 $2,219 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $3,467 −$4 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 06 $1,018 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $2,653 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $1,922 −$3 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 01 $222 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $1,798 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $899 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $248 −$20 -8%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $2,230 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $4,135 −$4 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $3,746 −$4 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,144 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $2,161 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $2,107 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $3,737 −$4 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2,220 −$2 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 12 $173 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $218 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $287 19h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $288 23h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $234 42h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $234 45h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $229 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $230 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $225 7d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $226 7d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $228 7d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $228 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $207 9d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $207 9d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $319 10d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $319 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $641 11d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,017 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,018 13d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,064 14d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,065 14d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,078 15d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,080 15d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,115 15d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,117 15d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,008 15d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,009 16d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $960 16d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $962 16d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,092 16d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,093 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $858.74 · official $858.74 (match) · 455 history records