Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:24:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5207…8285 crypto 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$104 (+3%) realized +$104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%12W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day73.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$234
other 36% +$323
sports 7% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-45.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -40.1% -45.8% 26% 26% -9.6%
≤30d 46 -40.1% -45.8% 26% 26% -9.6%
≤90d 46 -40.1% -45.8% 26% 26% -9.6%
all 46 -40.1% -45.8% 26% 26% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.8% 26% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -51.0% 24% -18.2%
15% -55.8% 22% -26.1%
20% -60.1% 20% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$44 · ×2.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses12 / 34
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage1d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day73.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $208 +$255 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $234 −$225 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $260 +$296 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $57 −$29 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $233 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $182 −$182 -100%
David Møller Wolfe: 1+ goals Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $128 +$78 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $142 −$9 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $41 +$118 +288%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 17 $111 +$86 +78%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $155 +$163 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$15 +50%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $132 +$101 +77%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $121 +$65 +54%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $42 +$14 +33%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 +$297 +290%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $120 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records