Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:06:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x520a…7915 crypto 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$16 (-9%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -28.1% -35.0% 45% 45% -22.4%
≤30d 11 -28.1% -35.0% 45% 45% -22.4%
≤90d 11 -28.1% -35.0% 45% 45% -22.4%
all 11 -28.1% -35.0% 45% 45% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.0% 45% -22.4%
10% ← realistic here -41.2% 27% -29.8%
15% -46.9% 9% -36.6%
20% -52.1% 9% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $27 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $11 +$7 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$8 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 25 $32 −$15 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 25 $30 −$28 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $17 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $32 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $11 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $16 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $13 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $11 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records