Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:03:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
52 0x5210…20b2 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$529 (+41%) realized +$535 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$518
sports 16% −$6
crypto 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -7.9% -16.7% 54% 54% +36.0%
≤30d 13 -7.9% -16.7% 54% 54% +36.0%
≤90d 13 -7.9% -16.7% 54% 54% +36.0%
all 13 -7.9% -16.7% 54% 54% +36.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 54% +36.0%
10% -24.6% 54% +23.0%
15% -31.9% 54% +11.1%
20% -38.6% 38% +0.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +50% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$17 · ×5.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.93 per $1 lost it wins $5.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$535
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 19
History coverage6d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 40¢ 38¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $303 +$173 +57%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $202 +$137 +67%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$56 +109%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $167 +$122 +73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $85 +$82 +97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $69 +$31 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $47 +$22 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.75 · official $93.75 (match) · 26 history records