Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:08:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
52 0x5211…0393 crypto 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 233d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,738per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 233d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 99% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.92 per $1 lost it wins $2.92
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage233d
Avg bet$1,738
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 29 $30 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 08 $5,153 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $30 40d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $1,033 233d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $1,033 233d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $643 233d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $1 233d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $1 233d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $368 233d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $1,013 233d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $94 233d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $1 233d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $938 233d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $1,033 233d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $321 233d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $4 233d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $708 233d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $736 233d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $297 233d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $666 233d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $10 233d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $1 233d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $68 233d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $7 233d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $290 233d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $1,042 233d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 26 history records