Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:48:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
52 0x5219…9781 other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$425 (-5%) realized −$462 · open +$37
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$4,383now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$123
14 days−$220
30 days−$552
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$15
politics 19% −$14
sports 4% −$340
tech 3% −$200
crypto 1% +$14
world 1% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-52.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -34.8% -41.0% 40% 40% +2.2%
≤30d 12 -47.9% -52.8% 33% 25% -27.2%
≤90d 12 -47.9% -52.8% 33% 25% -27.2%
all 12 -47.9% -52.8% 33% 25% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.8% 25% -27.2%
10% -57.4% 25% -34.2%
15% -61.5% 25% -40.6%
20% -65.3% 8% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -73% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$165 vs −$151 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$4,383
Realized−$462
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions22
Markets (closed)12 / 34
History coverage16d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $500 $513 +$13 (+3%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 60¢ $350 $481 +$131 (+38%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 86¢ $500 $471 −$29 (-6%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $400 $387 −$13 (-3%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 99¢ $317 $354 +$36 (+11%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 30¢ $300 $305 +$5 (+2%)
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? No 92¢ 93¢ $300 $305 +$5 (+2%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $300 $294 −$6 (-2%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 40¢ 40¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-2%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $128 $125 −$3 (-2%)
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 72¢ 69¢ $120 $116 −$4 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 71¢ 79¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 59¢ 52¢ $120 $105 −$15 (-13%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 34¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Colombia be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 78¢ 66¢ $70 $60 −$10 (-15%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $70 $38 −$32 (-45%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? Yes $20 $1 −$19 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FI Jun 23 $101 +$44 +43%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $507 +$419 +83%
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 18 $71 −$70 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $121 −$120 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $409 +$155 +38%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $71 −$70 -99%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $475 −$470 -99%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $507 +$43 +8%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $155 −$73 -47%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 08 $205 −$200 -98%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $59 −$58 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $121 1h
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $102 1h
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $303 1h
Will Paraguay be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FI SELL No 90¢ $145 1h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 70¢ $129 26h
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 72¢ $121 26h
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 3d
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 55¢ $71 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $121 6d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $152 6d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 40¢ $563 7d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $319 7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 9d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 55¢ $71 10d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $121 10d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $72 11d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 11d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 11d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $100 12d
Will Paraguay be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FI BUY No 62¢ $101 12d
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $70 12d
Will Colombia be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World C BUY Yes 17¢ $103 12d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $306 12d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 85¢ $503 12d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 94¢ $246 12d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 88¢ $231 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 12¢ $81 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 20¢ $52 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 22¢ $103 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,382.70 · official $4,382.75 (match) · 65 history records