Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:01:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
52 0x521b…a733 other 6 markets active 190d ago coverage 322d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,841 (-45%) realized −$3,841 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,427per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 79% −$3,131
other 14% −$85
culture 8% −$625
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-40.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 6 -33.8% -40.1% 50% 17% -50.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.1% 17% -50.1%
10% -45.9% 17% -54.9%
15% -51.1% 17% -59.2%
20% -55.9% 0% -63.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$1,328 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,841
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage322d
Avg bet$1,427
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $644 −$625 -97%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $633 +$11 +2%
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Nov 27 $320 +$132 +41%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Nov 19 $320 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? Nov 18 $228 −$228 -100%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Nov 18 $6,416 −$3,131 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $19 189d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 4¢ $644 189d
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL Yes 73¢ $644 189d
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 72¢ $633 189d
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? SELL Yes 24¢ $452 200d
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? BUY Yes 17¢ $320 206d
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? SELL No 63¢ $320 207d
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? BUY No 63¢ $320 208d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 6¢ $228 281d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 1¢ $1,987 509d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 1¢ $0 509d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 1¢ $227 509d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 1¢ $55 509d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 1¢ $869 509d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 1¢ $148 509d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? SELL No 2¢ $446 509d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? SELL No 2¢ $480 509d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? SELL No 1¢ $50 509d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? SELL No 1¢ $50 509d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? SELL No 2¢ $818 509d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? SELL No 1¢ $100 509d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? SELL No 2¢ $352 509d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? SELL No 1¢ $343 509d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? SELL No 2¢ $15 509d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? SELL No 1¢ $133 509d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? SELL No 2¢ $499 509d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 1¢ $949 510d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 1¢ $99 510d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 4¢ $150 511d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 2¢ $1,933 511d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records