Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:09:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
52 0x521c…f4aa sports 276 markets active 11h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,199 (-4%) realized −$2,210 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%131W / 144L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$860est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$386now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$901
14 days−$2,422
30 days−$3,986
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$2,638
other 1% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -25.6% -32.7% 40% 40% -27.4%
≤30d 52 -22.7% -30.1% 40% 40% -31.3%
≤90d 263 -11.4% -19.9% 45% 45% -13.9%
all 275 -6.5% -15.4% 48% 47% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 47% -13.6%
10% -23.5% 47% -21.8%
15% -30.9% 47% -29.4%
20% -37.7% 47% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$205 vs −$204 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$386
Realized−$2,210
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses131 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$860
Open positions1
Markets (closed)275 / 276
History coverage107d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alcaraz or Sinner win more Grand Slams in 2026? Alcaraz 49¢ 50¢ $375 $386 +$11 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert Jun 26 $303 −$300 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson Jun 25 $608 +$483 +79%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 25 $231 +$207 +90%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Fiona Crawley Jun 25 $154 −$150 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 25 $305 −$300 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Nao Hibino Jun 24 $96 +$92 +96%
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson Jun 24 $305 +$347 +114%
Bad Homburg Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 24 $304 −$300 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Federico Cina Jun 23 $301 −$300 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Alina Charaeva Jun 23 $304 +$213 +70%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 23 $305 −$300 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Emerson Jones Jun 23 $305 −$300 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar Jun 22 $456 +$307 +67%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina Jun 22 $304 −$300 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $300 −$300 -100%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $450 −$450 -100%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $305 −$300 -98%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $457 −$450 -98%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $301 +$225 +75%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $232 +$324 +140%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $304 −$300 -99%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $455 +$335 +74%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $302 −$300 -99%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $304 +$222 +73%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $232 −$228 -98%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $232 +$275 +119%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 12 $305 +$334 +109%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $232 +$286 +124%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 10 $457 −$450 -98%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $455 +$271 +60%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 09 $231 −$228 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Gauthier Onclin vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 08 $303 −$300 -99%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $455 +$282 +62%
Makarska: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 06 $103 +$98 +96%
Makarska: Elina Avanesyan vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 06 $609 −$600 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $152 −$150 -99%
Birmingham: Jacob Fearnley vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 02 $152 −$150 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $304 +$205 +67%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $306 +$484 +158%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi May 31 $304 −$300 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo May 31 $153 −$150 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 31 $303 +$173 +57%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys May 30 $152 +$160 +105%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 30 $537 −$528 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Maja Chwalinska May 30 $152 −$150 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka May 30 $152 −$150 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini May 28 $304 −$300 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Adam Walton May 28 $608 +$524 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert BUY Jack Draper 64¢ $303 11h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson BUY Maria Timofeeva 55¢ $608 38h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Tyra Caterina Grant BUY Tyra Caterina Grant 52¢ $231 38h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Fiona Crawley BUY Fiona Crawley 22¢ $154 38h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 41¢ $305 38h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Nao Hibino BUY Darja Semenistaja 51¢ $5 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Nao Hibino BUY Darja Semenistaja 51¢ $1 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Nao Hibino BUY Darja Semenistaja 51¢ $4 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Nao Hibino BUY Darja Semenistaja 51¢ $41 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Nao Hibino BUY Darja Semenistaja 51¢ $29 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Nao Hibino BUY Darja Semenistaja 51¢ $1 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Nao Hibino BUY Darja Semenistaja 51¢ $1 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Nao Hibino BUY Darja Semenistaja 51¢ $13 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Anna Kalinskaya 54¢ $304 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Federico Cina BUY Federico Cina 57¢ $167 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Federico Cina BUY Federico Cina 57¢ $2 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Federico Cina BUY Federico Cina 57¢ $27 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Federico Cina BUY Federico Cina 57¢ $105 3d
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson BUY Clara Tauson 46¢ $305 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 39¢ $305 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Emerson Jones BUY Linda Fruhvirtova 48¢ $305 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Alina Charaeva BUY Alina Charaeva 58¢ $304 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina BUY Daria Kasatkina 54¢ $304 4d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Terence Atmane 46¢ $106 4d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Terence Atmane 46¢ $170 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Terence Atmane 46¢ $4 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Terence Atmane 46¢ $0 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Terence Atmane 46¢ $9 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar BUY Zizou Bergs 59¢ $456 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Terence Atmane 46¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $386.47 · official $386.47 (match) · 837 history records