Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:56:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x521c…38f9 sports 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$324 (-8%) realized −$326 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate48%32W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$414now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$2
14 days−$0
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 23% −$155
sports 20% −$1
other 17% −$101
world 14% −$110
politics 12% +$119
finance 12% −$129
tech 1% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -6.6% -15.5% 67% 17% -10.0%
≤30d 14 -14.4% -22.5% 64% 29% -7.8%
≤90d 67 -25.4% -32.5% 48% 34% -19.7%
all 67 -25.4% -32.5% 48% 34% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.5% 34% -19.7%
10% -39.0% 24% -27.3%
15% -44.9% 10% -34.4%
20% -50.3% 6% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$26 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$414
Realized−$326
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses32 / 35
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions12
Markets (closed)67 / 79
History coverage74d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $64 $73 +$9 (+14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 87¢ $70 $69 −$2 (-2%)
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? No 77¢ 65¢ $80 $68 −$12 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 94¢ $67 $67 +$0 (+1%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 84¢ 100¢ $34 $40 +$6 (+19%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 88¢ 80¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-9%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? No 88¢ 98¢ $14 $15 +$2 (+11%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 82¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 36¢ 36¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 94¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $71 −$29 -40%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $61 +$15 +25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? Jun 16 $17 −$7 -44%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 16 $62 +$2 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 16 $90 +$7 +8%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 16 $113 +$9 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $26 +$2 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $104 +$7 +6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $18 −$18 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $13 −$4 -30%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $145 +$41 +28%
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? May 27 $73 +$10 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? May 26 $58 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 09 $14 −$8 -58%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner May 09 $23 −$9 -40%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $17 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9? May 09 $29 −$11 -37%
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $24 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 07 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 07 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 07 $14 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 07 $104 −$88 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 07 $53 +$11 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? May 07 $84 +$11 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 7? May 07 $124 −$44 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 07 $117 +$7 +6%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 06 $55 +$18 +32%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 05 $28 +$15 +56%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $14 −$13 -98%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 25 $96 +$5 +5%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $54 −$17 -32%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 21 $65 −$54 -84%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-04-17? Apr 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 219.5 Apr 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 18 $11 +$3 +24%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 17 $42 +$14 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4PM ET Apr 17 $146 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 17 $127 +$19 +15%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 17 $67 +$40 +60%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Real Betis win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $70 +$24 +34%
Blues vs. Utah Apr 17 $62 +$67 +108%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 14 $250 −$91 -36%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Apr 14 $4 −$1 -34%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 13 $132 −$39 -30%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 13 $2 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $37 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $42 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $11 2d
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? BUY No 77¢ $80 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $76 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? SELL Yes $9 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? BUY Yes $17 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $71 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $67 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $71 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $61 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $64 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $97 4d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $122 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $26 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 19d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $62 19d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $18 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 21d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $104 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $13 22d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 56¢ $105 22d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 43¢ $83 24d
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? SELL No 56¢ $83 24d
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? BUY No 48¢ $73 25d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $67 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up $6 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $14 42d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 38¢ $14 42d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 62¢ $23 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $413.68 · official $413.68 (match) · 746 history records