Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:44:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x521e…c074 sports 361 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (220 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$640 (-11%) realized −$640 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate42%153W / 208L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day220.1pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$846
14 days−$824
30 days−$824
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$449
other 33% −$378
crypto 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (220 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 244 -12.5% -20.8% 40% 30% -29.6%
≤30d 361 -12.3% -20.7% 42% 32% -23.7%
≤90d 361 -12.3% -20.7% 42% 32% -23.7%
all 361 -12.3% -20.7% 42% 32% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover220.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.7% 32% -23.7%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 27% -31.0%
15% -35.2% 20% -37.7%
20% -41.6% 17% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$640
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses153 / 208
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions0
Markets (closed)361 / 361
History coverage8d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day220.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 361 Trades
no open positions (135 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$5 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$10 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$10 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +38%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $29 +$1 +4%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 -15%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 $0 -10%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $23 −$1 -5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $2 $0 -15%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $9 $0 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 12 $4 $0 -10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 $0 -10%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 12 $3 $0 -1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $3 $0 -3%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 12 $3 $0 -7%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $3 $0 -4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $12 −$1 -7%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 -15%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 12 $4 $0 -3%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 12 $4 $0 -3%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 +$1 +50%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 12 $4 $0 +2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $6 $0 -2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $6 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $18 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.02 · official $2.61 · 2036 history records