Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
52 0x521e…8aa2 sports 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,269 (+6%) realized +$1,246 · open +$23
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%74W / 69L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$284est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$119
7 days+$134
14 days−$206
30 days−$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$1,601
other 7% −$466
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +7.5% -2.8% 42% 42% -6.4%
≤30d 57 +9.3% -1.1% 47% 47% -11.8%
≤90d 143 +9.6% -0.8% 52% 52% -4.5%
all 143 +9.6% -0.8% 52% 52% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 52% -4.5%
10% -10.3% 52% -13.6%
15% -19.0% 52% -22.0%
20% -26.9% 52% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$141 vs −$136 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized+$1,246
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses74 / 69
Est. fees paid−$284
Open positions2
Markets (closed)143 / 145
History coverage53d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 40¢ $80 $102 +$22 (+27%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $85 $86 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $152 +$102 +67%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$103 +101%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $127 +$210 +165%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $263 −$260 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $162 −$160 -99%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $72 +$178 +250%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $162 +$105 +65%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $192 −$190 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $132 −$130 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $254 +$218 +86%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $77 +$182 +238%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $87 −$85 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $56 +$249 +442%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $213 +$207 +97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $66 −$65 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $66 +$184 +276%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $192 +$100 +52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $122 −$120 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $162 −$160 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $253 +$210 +83%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 10 $127 +$109 +86%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $102 +$123 +121%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $117 −$115 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 09 $213 −$210 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $122 +$105 +86%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $369 −$364 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $102 +$116 +114%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 06 $218 −$215 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $203 +$205 +101%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 04 $203 −$200 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 04 $107 +$99 +93%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 04 $152 +$107 +70%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 04 $107 −$105 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $203 +$205 +101%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $314 −$310 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $289 −$285 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $71 +$162 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $87 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $82 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $152 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $102 7h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 56¢ $263 20h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $127 23h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 42¢ $102 26h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $162 30h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $61 47h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $72 47h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $162 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $192 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $132 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $71 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $61 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $254 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $87 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $77 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 47¢ $102 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $56 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $66 3d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $102 3d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $213 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $66 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 65¢ $192 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $122 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.35 · official $185.77 · 228 history records