Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:48:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
52 0x521f…80cd crypto 583 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$48 (-0%) realized −$82 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate81%469W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$129
14 days−$28
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$10
sports 30% −$65
other 3% −$18
politics 0% −$4
world 0% −$3
tech 0% −$5
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 205 -4.3% -13.4% 87% 8% -12.7%
≤30d 469 -3.5% -12.7% 88% 13% -9.7%
≤90d 581 -6.1% -15.0% 81% 18% -10.1%
all 581 -6.1% -15.0% 81% 18% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 18% -10.1%
10% -23.2% 12% -18.7%
15% -30.6% 9% -26.5%
20% -37.4% 7% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$82
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses469 / 112
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)581 / 583
History coverage69d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 581 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Tunisia 90¢ 60¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 42¢ 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Will Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Jeju SK FC end in a draw? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-09? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Under 95¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 3 - 0 Burnley FC? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Shandong Taishan FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC end in a draw? No 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Spurs 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Yes 76¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-05-09? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5 Yes 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Timberwolves 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Kataller Toyama win on 2026-05-17? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Under 70¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) Lakers 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $90 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$12 +119%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 90¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 2h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 84¢ $5 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 95¢ $3 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $2 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.99 · official $6.99 (match) · 1394 history records