Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:05:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
52 0x5221…3304 sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$809 (+41%) realized +$1,008 · open −$199
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate65%11W / 6L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$389
other 38% +$184
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+41.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +56.5% +41.6% 65% 65% +33.1%
≤30d 17 +56.5% +41.6% 65% 65% +33.1%
≤90d 17 +56.5% +41.6% 65% 65% +33.1%
all 17 +56.5% +41.6% 65% 65% +33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +41.6% 65% +33.1%
10% +28.1% 65% +20.4%
15% +15.7% 65% +8.8%
20% +4.4% 53% -1.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +84% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$66 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.96 per $1 lost it wins $2.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,008
Unrealized−$199
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses11 / 6
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $199 $0 −$199 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 24 $21 +$13 +62%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 24 $25 +$13 +51%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $132 +$133 +101%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 24 $72 −$50 -70%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $162 +$114 +70%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $101 +$58 +57%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $31 +$219 +712%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $122 +$139 +114%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $151 +$66 +44%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $41 −$4 -9%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $159 +$238 +150%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $203 +$121 +60%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $71 −$70 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 36¢ $78 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $305 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Brazil 27¢ $33 3h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 83¢ $38 3h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 16¢ $21 3h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 54¢ $25 3h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 10h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 27¢ $20 10h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Scotland 50¢ $152 11h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 28¢ $72 11h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 49¢ $132 11h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $152 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 24h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 63¢ $101 25h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 12¢ $31 35h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $122 35h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $151 35h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $37 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $41 2d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 40¢ $102 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 92¢ $397 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 91¢ $324 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $159 2d
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 35¢ $71 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $203 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.22 · official $0.22 (match) · 33 history records