Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:31:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
52 0x5222…f6e0 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$23 (+7%) realized +$27 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$355now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +26.6% +14.5% 100% 100% +14.5%
≤30d 1 +26.6% +14.5% 100% 100% +14.5%
≤90d 1 +26.6% +14.5% 100% 100% +14.5%
all 1 +26.6% +14.5% 100% 100% +14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.5% 100% +14.5%
10% +3.6% 100% +3.6%
15% -6.4% 0% -6.4%
20% -15.6% 0% -15.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$355
Realized+$27
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $83 $81 −$2 (-2%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$27 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $85 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $355.43 · official $355.43 (match) · 4 history records