Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:43:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
52 0x5226…8554 other 375 markets active 1h ago coverage 217d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 216d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$31,113 (+10%) realized +$25,206 · open +$5,907
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate74%233W / 81L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$818per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$30,449now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,445
7 days+$1,191
14 days+$754
30 days+$4,605
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% +$9,051
finance 24% +$14,964
other 21% +$8,218
sports 6% −$2,837
politics 5% +$1
tech 2% +$294
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +14.7% +3.8% 88% 65% -5.0%
≤30d 32 +63.8% +48.2% 78% 62% +4.3%
≤90d 205 +11.9% +1.2% 80% 29% +7.7%
all 314 +6.0% -4.1% 74% 26% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.1% 26% -1.8%
10% ← realistic here -13.2% 19% -11.2%
15% -21.6% 13% -19.7%
20% -29.3% 11% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$757) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$190 vs −$262 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$30,449
Realized+$25,206
Unrealized+$5,907
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses233 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions61
Markets (closed)314 / 375
History coverage217d ⚠
Avg bet$818
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 61 History 314 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? No 61¢ 99¢ $5,291 $8,603 +$3,312 (+63%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? No 38¢ 100¢ $965 $2,543 +$1,578 (+163%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,850 Week of June 22 2026? No 94¢ 92¢ $1,490 $1,466 −$24 (-2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $1,128 $1,159 +$31 (+3%)
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? No 97¢ 97¢ $1,126 $1,129 +$4 (+0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? No 68¢ 85¢ $872 $1,089 +$217 (+25%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in June? No 96¢ 98¢ $926 $943 +$16 (+2%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? No 54¢ 78¢ $576 $830 +$254 (+44%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June? No 80¢ 97¢ $671 $815 +$144 (+21%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June? No 77¢ 88¢ $712 $810 +$98 (+14%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? No 31¢ 17¢ $1,230 $692 −$538 (-44%)
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $272 in June? No 92¢ 98¢ $587 $628 +$40 (+7%)
Will Chainlink dip to $6 in June? No 96¢ 96¢ $578 $579 +$2 (+0%)
Will Chainlink reach $18 by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 72¢ $549 $547 −$2 (-0%)
Will Chainlink reach $12 in June? No 96¢ 98¢ $520 $526 +$6 (+1%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $500 $514 +$14 (+3%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $220 Week of June 22 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $503 $500 −$3 (-1%)
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $480 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $485 $495 +$10 (+2%)
Will UNI reach $11.00 by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 86¢ $389 $482 +$93 (+24%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? No 95¢ 99¢ $431 $453 +$22 (+5%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of June 22 2026? No 90¢ 88¢ $450 $440 −$10 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? No 96¢ 95¢ $427 $424 −$4 (-1%)
Will XRP dip to $0.40 by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 86¢ $355 $419 +$63 (+18%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? No 94¢ 99¢ $367 $385 +$18 (+5%)
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0038 by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 76¢ $390 $377 −$13 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $83 +$8 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $7,598 +$450 +6%
Will BNB dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $14 +$2 +15%
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $1,300 +$85 +6%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June? Jun 24 $350 +$112 +32%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 23 $389 +$286 +74%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Jun 23 $728 +$436 +60%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 23 $2,023 +$422 +21%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? Jun 23 $1,901 +$644 +34%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June? Jun 20 $515 +$115 +22%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? Jun 20 $271 +$113 +42%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? Jun 20 $102 +$16 +16%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 19 $205 −$199 -97%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June? Jun 17 $941 +$107 +11%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? Jun 17 $2,948 +$265 +9%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? Jun 17 $228 +$83 +36%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $3,988 −$1,754 -44%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 16 $436 −$424 -97%
Will Hyperliquid reach $58 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in May? Jun 01 $70 +$240 +345%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May? Jun 01 $272 +$333 +122%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of June? May 31 $91 −$91 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 31 $1,629 −$635 -39%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May? May 31 $4 +$47 +1106%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May? May 31 $847 +$2,751 +325%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 31 $61 +$89 +146%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May? May 26 $998 +$849 +85%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in May? May 26 $230 +$126 +55%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in May? May 25 $138 +$18 +13%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in May? May 25 $50 +$14 +28%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 25 $1,652 +$111 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 24 $355 +$120 +34%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June? May 19 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in May? May 19 $971 −$971 -100%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $220 in May? May 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? May 14 $975 +$604 +62%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? May 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $210 in May? May 12 $988 −$352 -36%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.30 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.10 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $135 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $10 $0 +2%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $240 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $36 $0 +1%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $102.50 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $77 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $252 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $203 +$2 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $256 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $215 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $420 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 92¢ $189 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $220 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 95¢ $286 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 91¢ $50 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? BUY No 96¢ $313 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? BUY No 96¢ $115 1h
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $375 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 93¢ $231 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 90¢ $452 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $220 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 94¢ $218 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,850 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 94¢ $242 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,850 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 94¢ $483 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,850 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 93¢ $768 1h
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $90 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $1,551 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $659 1h
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $85 1h
Will BNB dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $16 1h
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $1,385 1h
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 21¢ $306 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $1,099 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $245 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? SELL No 84¢ $80 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? SELL No 78¢ $302 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December? SELL No 66¢ $114 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? SELL No 87¢ $461 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June? SELL No 96¢ $516 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June? SELL No 98¢ $461 1h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $58 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 58¢ $29 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,950 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 74¢ $107 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 31¢ $45 1h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 28¢ $70 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30,449.11 · official $30,449.51 (match) · 3500 history records