Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:17:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5226…9a84 world 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 379d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%7W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$2
other 26% $0
politics 6% $0
tech 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 -9.8% -18.4% 22% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 9 -9.8% -18.4% 22% 0% -10.0%
all 26 -7.2% -16.0% 27% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -24.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -31.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -38.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

379d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses7 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage379d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $47 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $85 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $46 −$2 -5%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $43 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Jun 23 $17 $0 -0%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 23 $17 $0 +1%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 22 $16 $0 -1%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish second in the 2025 Drivers Champions Jun 21 $17 $0 +0%
Starmer out before July? Jun 17 $36 $0 -0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $42 1h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $1 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $41 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $22 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $44 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $44 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $46 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $46 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $47 17d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $33 18d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $33 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $4 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $38 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $4 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $21 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $17 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $0 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $2 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $1 20d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $1 20d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 82¢ $43 20d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $43 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.52 · official $41.80 (match) · 68 history records