Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:19:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x522b…275e other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$52 (-18%) realized −$49 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$67
sports 4% +$13
crypto 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-38.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -18.9% -26.6% 40% 40% -12.8%
≤30d 6 -32.4% -38.9% 33% 33% -31.1%
≤90d 6 -32.4% -38.9% 33% 33% -31.1%
all 6 -32.4% -38.9% 33% 33% -31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.9% 33% -31.1%
10% -44.7% 33% -37.7%
15% -50.1% 33% -43.7%
20% -55.0% 17% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$29 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$49
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage8d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 64¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $25 −$16 -65%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$13 +122%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$48 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $47 −$46 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $23 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 20h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 20h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $47 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.43 · official $47.43 (match) · 10 history records