Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:58:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
52 0x522e…a453 sports 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$581 (+42%) realized +$580 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%20W / 12L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$562
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +26.7% +14.6% 62% 62% +30.1%
≤30d 32 +26.7% +14.6% 62% 62% +30.1%
≤90d 32 +26.7% +14.6% 62% 62% +30.1%
all 32 +26.7% +14.6% 62% 62% +30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.6% 62% +30.1%
10% +3.6% 62% +17.6%
15% -6.4% 62% +6.3%
20% -15.6% 59% -4.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$24 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.91 per $1 lost it wins $2.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$580
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses20 / 12
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage6d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 48¢ 48¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. England: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $97 −$4 -5%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $44 +$45 +102%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $48 +$82 +172%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $6 +$5 +78%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $81 −$81 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $51 +$44 +86%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $51 +$70 +137%
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $30 −$21 -68%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $40 +$28 +69%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $102 +$183 +180%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $91 +$49 +54%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $36 −$36 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $64 +$45 +71%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $51 +$65 +129%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $25 +$22 +86%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $30 +$21 +68%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $70 +$41 +58%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $54 +$41 +75%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $41 −$23 -57%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $41 +$37 +91%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $20 +$22 +109%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 +$24 +119%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $19 +$11 +59%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $6 −$5 -79%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$9 -86%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $18 +$10 +52%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $19 +$10 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. England: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 52¢ $92 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $97 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $102 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $89 16h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $130 16h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $11 16h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $6 16h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $44 17h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 36¢ $48 17h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $94 18h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $121 18h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 41¢ $51 20h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $51 20h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $81 23h
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 18¢ $10 24h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $68 24h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $285 24h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $40 32h
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $30 32h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $102 32h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $140 40h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $55 42h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $36 42h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $109 44h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $64 45h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $3 45h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $32 45h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $25 2d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $51 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.04 · official $101.04 (match) · 77 history records