Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:34:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5230…2cbd other 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-0%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%19W / 115L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$15
14 days−$21
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 24% −$13
other 24% −$14
sports 20% −$13
crypto 11% −$8
world 8% +$1
economics 7% −$1
culture 5% −$6
finance 1% −$3
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.7% -10.2% 17% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 63 -0.5% -10.0% 13% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 112 -0.5% -9.9% 12% 0% -9.8%
all 134 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses19 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage105d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 97¢ 97¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $55 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 16 $43 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $114 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $159 +$1 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 14 $41 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $358 −$1 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $287 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $192 −$3 -2%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $493 −$1 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $51 −$3 -5%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $39 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $83 $0 +0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $522 −$3 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $230 $0 -0%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $668 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $66 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 07 $156 −$3 -2%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $46 $0 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $205 −$1 -0%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $112 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $58 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $251 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $232 −$1 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 02 $40 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $95 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $185 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $49 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $99 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $55 $0 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $263 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $57 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $54 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $44 1h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $55 2h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $55 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 97¢ $43 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $43 14h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $59 15h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $60 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 94¢ $50 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $26 31h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $23 31h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 31h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $41 37h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $40 38h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $41 43h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $45 43h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $45 47h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $48 2d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $48 2d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 92¢ $53 2d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 93¢ $54 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $44 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $44 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $44 3d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.78 · official $43.78 (match) · 543 history records