Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:55:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
52 0x5231…4907 sports 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$38 (+4%) realized +$44 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$59
14 days+$33
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$64
other 32% +$110
crypto 1% −$10
weather 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +44.4% +30.7% 64% 64% -0.4%
≤30d 20 -5.5% -14.5% 40% 40% -5.0%
≤90d 20 -5.5% -14.5% 40% 40% -5.0%
all 20 -5.5% -14.5% 40% 40% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 40% -5.0%
10% -22.7% 40% -14.1%
15% -30.2% 40% -22.4%
20% -37.0% 40% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$22 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$249
Realized+$44
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)20 / 25
History coverage11d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $62 $60 −$2 (-2%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 90¢ 84¢ $60 $56 −$4 (-6%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ 52¢ $54 $53 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Houston Astros 66¢ 66¢ $43 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 52¢ 52¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $41 +$36 +90%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $36 +$36 +101%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $105 +$56 +54%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $33 +$23 +70%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $54 −$41 -76%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $85 +$53 +62%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $46 −$45 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $86 −$85 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $43 +$34 +79%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $10 +$42 +409%
Will the 2026 NBA Finals be tied 2-2 through 4 games? Jun 10 $17 −$16 -98%
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 3-1 through 4 games? Jun 10 $18 −$2 -8%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -96%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 66¢ $43 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 52¢ $38 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ $55 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $63 9h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 52¢ $41 20h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 62¢ $51 20h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 49¢ $36 36h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $43 44h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 40¢ $58 44h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 44h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 44h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $42 44h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 13¢ $13 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $33 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $54 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 61¢ $85 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $46 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $86 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $76 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $43 4d
Will the 2026 NBA Finals be tied 2-2 through 4 games? BUY Yes 47¢ $17 8d
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 3-1 through 4 games? SELL Yes 52¢ $17 8d
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 3-1 through 4 games? BUY Yes 55¢ $18 9d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 10d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 10d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 9? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 10d
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? BUY Yes $5 11d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $60 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.34 · official $249.34 (match) · 39 history records