Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:47:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

52
0x5235…c04a
crypto · 129 markets active 5h ago
0.0score
−$92,238 -25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$110,645 · open +$20,222
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$221,121
Realized−$110,645
Unrealized+$20,222
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses52 / 212
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions25
Markets (closed)264 / 129
Avg bet$2,843
Trades / day26.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 25 History 264 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$138,161
7 days−$136,299
14 days−$139,162
30 days−$139,561
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 69¢ 78¢ $128,032 $144,993 +$16,961 (+13%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 53¢ 56¢ $51,285 $54,681 +$3,396 (+7%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No 67¢ 96¢ $6,972 $10,003 +$3,031 (+43%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 63¢ 85¢ $2,719 $3,693 +$974 (+36%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 76¢ 97¢ $2,466 $3,150 +$683 (+28%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2,198 $2,118 −$80 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 36¢ 10¢ $2,849 $752 −$2,097 (-74%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 92¢ $511 $557 +$46 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 12¢ $536 $275 −$261 (-49%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $312 $246 −$67 (-21%)
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $766 $168 −$598 (-78%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 45¢ 50¢ $135 $148 +$14 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 17¢ 3¢ $676 $131 −$544 (-81%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 31¢ 40¢ $39 $50 +$11 (+27%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? No 53¢ 90¢ $30 $50 +$20 (+68%)
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? Yes 10¢ 18¢ $18 $33 +$15 (+85%)
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? Yes 11¢ 25¢ $11 $25 +$14 (+127%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 63¢ 16¢ $43 $11 −$32 (-74%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 21¢ 1¢ $167 $11 −$156 (-93%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 26¢ 38¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+50%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 23¢ 12¢ $14 $7 −$7 (-48%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $475 $6 −$469 (-99%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $635 $2 −$633 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-61%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $150 in January? Jun 12 $140 −$21 -15%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jun 12 $585 −$697 -119%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 12 $1,431 −$2,033 -142%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jun 12 $23 −$50 -221%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
US recession in 2025? Jun 12 $0 −$212 -68760%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Jun 12 $2,155 −$1,798 -83%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 12 $1,356 −$1,347 -99%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Jun 12 $11 −$14 -134%
Will Zohran Mamdani win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 12 $37 −$69 -184%
ETH flipped in 2025? Jun 12 $71 −$87 -122%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jun 12 $500 −$285 -57%
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025? Jun 12 $3,178 −$3,178 -100%
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2025? Jun 12 $3 −$21 -718%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 9? Jun 12 $0 −$8 -11636%
Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Semiconductor" or "Chip" during events with South Kore Jun 12 $41 −$89 -217%
Will Nikita Bier be the next CEO of X? Jun 12 $79 −$80 -101%
Will Mahmoud Reza Banki be the next CEO of X? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will anyone say "Squid Game" during the Q2 2025 Netflix earnings call? Jun 12 $11 −$9 -85%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 12 $0 −$2,817 -1372865%
Will UP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 20 Jun 12 $435 −$464 -107%
Will Taylor Swift release a new original song by August 31? Jun 12 $5 −$17 -312%
Will Elon Musk be the next CEO of X? Jun 12 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 6% and 9% in th Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Jun 12 $115 +$1,068 +933%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 12 $40 −$34 -83%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 12 $163 −$163 -100%
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? Jun 12 $250 −$2,920 -1166%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% or more in July? Jun 12 $575 −$580 -101%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? Jun 12 $291 −$394 -135%
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2025? Jun 12 $251 −$169 -67%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Ghislaine Maxwell released from custody in 2025? Jun 12 $9 −$13 -142%
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 12 $3 −$96 -3458%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the ECB announce no change at the September meeting? Jun 12 $1 −$19 -2750%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 12 $1,256 −$971 -77%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $335 −$380 -113%
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025? Jun 12 $441 −$441 -100%
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jun 12 $662 −$987 -149%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 12 $30 +$13 +44%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in July? Jun 12 $38 −$47 -126%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in September? Jun 12 $812 −$823 -101%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 12 $2 −$68 -2734%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January? Jun 12 $0 +$10 +5467%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Jun 12 $197 −$477 -242%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by December 31? Jun 12 $19 −$21 -110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 63% +$22,236
crypto 21% +$18,951
politics 7% −$4,229
other 5% +$3,314
culture 2% +$6,292
economics 1% +$1,641
tech 1% −$165
sports 0% −$153
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $1,640 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $37 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $37 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $37 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $33 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $46 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $74 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $111 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $243 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $83 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $125 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $324 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $140 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $18 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $1,600 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 58¢ $523 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 58¢ $57 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 58¢ $102 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 58¢ $541 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $39 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $297 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $550 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $267 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $174 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $458 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $648 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $666 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 76¢ $1,520 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 163 -22.9% -30.2% 8% 7% -85.4%
≤30d 183 -24.3% -31.5% 10% 8% -71.0%
≤90d 214 -24.6% -31.7% 15% 12% -42.3%
all 264 -12.8% -21.1% 20% 15% -39.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover26.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.1% 15% -39.9%
10% -28.7% 14% -45.6%
15% ← realistic here -35.6% 10% -50.9%
20% -41.9% 9% -55.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221,121.02 · official $221,130.70 (match) · 3500 history records