Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:12:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
52 0x5237…778c sports 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 217d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$316 (+7%) realized +$323 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%12W / 11L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$903now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$39
14 days+$178
30 days+$317
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$358
sports 29% +$640
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +19.3% +7.9% 58% 50% -8.0%
≤30d 16 +23.3% +11.6% 62% 56% +0.5%
≤90d 20 +23.0% +11.3% 55% 50% +1.3%
all 23 +17.7% +6.5% 52% 48% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.5% 48% -2.0%
10% -3.7% 43% -11.4%
15% -13.0% 39% -20.0%
20% -21.5% 35% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$93 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$903
Realized+$323
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage217d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $812 $807 −$5 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $98 $95 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $100 +$55 +55%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$72 -70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $863 +$103 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $150 +$86 +57%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $151 −$102 -67%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $208 +$52 +25%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $398 −$190 -48%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $51 +$187 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $152 +$9 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $140 +$64 +46%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $221 +$125 +56%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $100 +$139 +140%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $95 +$370 +388%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $101 −$99 -98%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $100 −$98 -98%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 17 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Canada win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Women's Ice H Feb 17 $101 −$101 -100%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $76 −$76 -100%
UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $50 +$74 +148%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $400 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $415 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 64¢ $100 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $100 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes $30 28h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 30h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $863 33h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $150 38h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $101 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $40 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 23¢ $50 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $151 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $260 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $208 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 49¢ $208 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $398 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $51 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $51 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $152 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 68¢ $140 9d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 18¢ $45 10d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 47¢ $120 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 64¢ $151 21d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 64¢ $151 21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 41¢ $100 21d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 100¢ $102 42d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 100¢ $260 42d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 42d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 100¢ $102 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $902.72 · official $902.72 (match) · 62 history records