Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:01:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5238…ba99 other 119 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$116 (-6%) realized −$87 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%47W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$137
14 days−$34
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$69
sports 32% −$131
crypto 2% +$3
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -25.5% -32.6% 33% 33% -17.3%
≤30d 116 -6.2% -15.1% 41% 41% -11.1%
≤90d 116 -6.2% -15.1% 41% 41% -11.1%
all 116 -6.2% -15.1% 41% 41% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 41% -11.1%
10% -23.2% 39% -19.6%
15% -30.6% 38% -27.4%
20% -37.4% 36% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$14 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$87
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses47 / 69
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 119
History coverage12d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Morocco leading at halftime? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$18 +35%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AN Jun 24 $20 +$74 +361%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $25 +$24 +95%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$14 +57%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 23 $19 −$19 -99%
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $19 −$19 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $61 −$60 -99%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Second half draw? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $20 +$91 +442%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 22 $36 +$84 +235%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $40 −$21 -52%
Austria to win the second half? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $7 −$7 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $36 +$8 +22%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $30 +$25 +82%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $28 −$25 -91%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Morocco to win the second half? Jun 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Second half draw? Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Second half draw? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 22 $12 −$9 -77%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 22 $38 −$23 -61%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $64 −$13 -21%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $29 +$17 +57%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $9 +$28 +302%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 21 $56 +$51 +92%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $14 +$18 +128%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $9 −$2 -21%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 87¢ $68 19m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AN SELL 83¢ $95 20m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 39m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 72¢ $50 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 1h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 5h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $19 12h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 24h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 25h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AN BUY 18¢ $20 25h
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $19 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $61 27h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 27h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 7¢ $10 28h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 16¢ $10 28h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 16¢ $15 28h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 6¢ $4 29h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Second half draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 29h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 46h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 46h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 46h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $12 46h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 47h
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 47h
Argentina to win the second half? SELL Yes 95¢ $120 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 247 history records