Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:55:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5239…5bf8 sports 174 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%5W / 169L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$5
other 23% −$5
politics 20% −$2
culture 8% −$1
world 8% −$2
crypto 7% −$1
economics 4% −$1
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 174 -0.1% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses5 / 169
Open positions0
Markets (closed)174 / 174
History coverage168d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 174 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $74 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $44 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? May 18 $41 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 03 $254 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 02 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $100 $0 -0%
Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Mar 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $99 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 02 $87 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 02 $205 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $47 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 27 $157 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 27 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Feb 23 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 23 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $104 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 23 $101 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 23 $110 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 23 $67 −$1 -2%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 23 $197 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 23 $73 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 23 $159 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 23 $61 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $142 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $95 −$1 -2%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 23 $254 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 23 $16 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 23 $87 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 23 $127 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 23 $57 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 21 $50 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 21 $121 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 21 $18 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 21 $159 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 21 $203 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $105 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $39 1h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $39 6h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $35 7d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $35 7d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $44 22d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $44 22d
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 34d
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 35d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $46 110d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $46 111d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $47 111d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $47 111d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $46 111d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $46 111d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $38 111d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $38 111d
Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 97¢ $35 111d
Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 97¢ $35 111d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? SELL No 98¢ $36 111d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 98¢ $36 111d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $48 111d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $48 111d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 97¢ $46 112d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 98¢ $46 112d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 97¢ $40 112d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 98¢ $40 112d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $42 112d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 112d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $47 114d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $47 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 705 history records