Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:45:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
52 0x5239…4134 weather 462 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$569 (+9%) realized +$564 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate57%259W / 198L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day39.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$58
14 days+$103
30 days+$355
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 75% +$896
other 13% −$473
sports 12% +$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +7.3% -2.9% 55% 43% -5.1%
≤30d 290 +8.7% -1.6% 60% 37% +0.5%
≤90d 457 +15.6% +4.6% 57% 32% -2.3%
all 457 +15.6% +4.6% 57% 32% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.6% 32% -2.3%
10% ← realistic here -5.4% 24% -11.7%
15% -14.5% 17% -20.2%
20% -22.9% 12% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$564
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses259 / 198
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)457 / 462
History coverage57d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day39.8
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 457 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 66¢ 66¢ $64 $65 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 66¢ 77¢ $27 $32 +$5 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $15 +$3 +19%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $89 +$113 +126%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $101 +$47 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $242 −$79 -33%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $67 +$17 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -74%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $50 −$14 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $17 +$11 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$4 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $24 −$21 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$18 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 +$3 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $12 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -64%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $20 +$9 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +13%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $14 +$6 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$4 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $11 +$2 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +37%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $18 +$7 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $33 +$46 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 +$4 +1159%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? SELL No 78¢ $1 24m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? SELL No 78¢ $6 36m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $65 45m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? SELL No 74¢ $12 52m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 99¢ $18 56m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 81¢ $3 1h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will Sp BUY 63¢ $20 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 83¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $202 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 58¢ $23 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 42¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 43¢ $22 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 43¢ $66 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 99¢ $148 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 67¢ $101 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 84¢ $41 20h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 41¢ $20 20h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 35¢ $19 20h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 74¢ $41 21h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $66 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 25¢ $60 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 31¢ $77 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 32¢ $42 23h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 23h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL Vitality 100¢ $23 23h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $78 24h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.23 · official $116.23 · 2409 history records