Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:03:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
52 0x5239…64a4 politics 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 842d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$14,200 (-35%) realized −$5,964 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate48%31W / 33L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$575per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$238now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$2,832
other 16% −$3,163
world 16% +$721
sports 11% −$710
crypto 9% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 +18.5% +7.3% 50% 50% -36.2%
all 64 +9.4% -1.0% 48% 25% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 25% -23.0%
10% -10.5% 17% -30.4%
15% -19.1% 12% -37.1%
20% -27.1% 11% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% too few recent
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$268 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

842d coverage
Net worth$238
Realized−$5,964
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses31 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)64 / 71
History coverage842d
Avg bet$575
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes $97 $94 −$2 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 79¢ 78¢ $32 $31 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Diego Lopes 58¢ 57¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $28 $27 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $21 $20 −$0 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Michael Chandler 19¢ 18¢ $19 $19 −$1 (-3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 23¢ 20¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Miami vs. Texas A&M Texas A&M 56¢ $416 $0 −$416 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Up 50¢ $304 $0 −$304 (-100%)
Will Travis Kelce score a TD in Super Bowl LIX? Yes 41¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump say "Chiefs" during Super Bowl pregame interview? Yes 11¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Travis Kelce proposes to Taylor Swift at Super Bowl? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the Super Bowl national anthem last less than 80 seconds? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Super Bowl LIX Winner Chiefs 52¢ $156 $0 −$156 (-100%)
Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 2 times? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX? Yes 40¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 3 times? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Harrison Butker make 2 or more field goals in Super Bowl LIX? Over 61¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Taylor Swift Super Bowl LIX Parlay Yes 23¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Houston Cougars Texas A&M Aggies 18¢ $1,180 $0 −$1,180 (-100%)
Will Patrick Mahomes score a TD in Super Bowl LIX? Yes 23¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will there be a streaker? Yes 34¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Joe Biden attend Super Bowl LIX? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Down $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 90 and 100 seconds? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Houston Cougars Mar 21 $1,183 −$1,180 -100%
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Saint Mary's Gaels Mar 21 $499 +$684 +137%
Miami vs. Texas A&M Dec 20 $416 −$416 -100%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Dec 01 $4,833 −$1,827 -38%
South Carolina vs. Texas A&M Nov 15 $1,999 +$245 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Oct 26 $304 −$304 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Oct 26 $211 −$16 -8%
Texas A&M vs. LSU Oct 26 $100 +$78 +79%
Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 1 time? Oct 25 $2 +$98 +4963%
Texas vs. Texas A&M Feb 09 $112 −$112 -100%
Travis Kelce proposes to Taylor Swift at Super Bowl? Feb 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Harrison Butker make 2 or more field goals in Super Bowl LIX? Feb 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Chiefs" during Super Bowl pregame interview? Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be a streaker? Feb 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 90 and 100 seconds? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Super Bowl national anthem last less than 80 seconds? Feb 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 80 and 90 seconds? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Taylor Swift Super Bowl LIX Parlay Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Joe Biden attend Super Bowl LIX? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 3 times? Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 2 times? Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Travis Kelce score a TD in Super Bowl LIX? Feb 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Patrick Mahomes score a TD in Super Bowl LIX? Feb 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX? Feb 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Super Bowl LIX Winner Feb 09 $156 −$156 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in November? Nov 11 $1,585 −$45 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in November? Nov 11 $607 +$107 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in November? Nov 11 $303 +$144 +48%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in November? Nov 11 $420 +$129 +31%
Will Trump say "God" in his speech after the election is called? Nov 10 $501 −$1 -0%
Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election? Nov 10 $13,488 −$3,140 -23%
Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet? Nov 09 $172 +$7 +4%
Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election? Nov 08 $68 +$18 +27%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Nov 08 $6,404 +$721 +11%
Will Trump say "Steal", "Stealing", "Stole", or "Stolen" in his speech Nov 07 $12 +$2 +14%
Will Kamala say "Vote" 3 or more times in her speech after the electio Nov 07 $151 +$12 +8%
Will Kamala say "Promise of America" in her speech after the election Nov 07 $396 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Rig" or "Rigged" in his speech after the election is c Nov 07 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Trump say "Fraud" in his speech after the election is called? Nov 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "We Won" in his speech after the election is called? Nov 07 $11 +$8 +73%
Will Trump say "Victory" three or more times in his speech after the e Nov 07 $17 +$3 +15%
Will Kamala say "All Americans" or "Every American" in her speech afte Nov 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Kamala say "Democracy" 3 or more times in her speech after the el Nov 07 $67 −$7 -10%
Will Trump say "Mail-in" in his speech after the election is called? Nov 07 $14 +$32 +229%
Will Trump say "Border" in his speech after the election is called? Nov 07 $42 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" in his speech after the election Nov 07 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "MAGA" in his speech after the election is called? Nov 07 $57 +$2 +4%
Will Kamala say "won" or "win" in her speech after the election is cal Nov 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Kamala say "Victory" in her speech after the election is called? Nov 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Kamala say "god" in her speech after the election is called? Nov 07 $40 −$20 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 19¢ $8 58m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 79¢ $8 59m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 19¢ $12 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $40 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $20 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $29 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $18 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $21 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $1 23d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $2 24d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $2 24d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $5 24d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $1 24d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $4 24d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $5 24d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $6 24d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $5 24d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $4 25d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $5 25d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $5 25d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $4 25d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $4 25d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $4 25d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $1 25d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $3 25d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $1 25d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $3 25d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $1 25d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $3 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.99 · official $237.99 (match) · 562 history records