Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:29:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
52 0x523c…c208 world 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate64%14W / 8L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$1
other 22% +$2
politics 6% $0
finance 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.0% -7.7% 57% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 12 +0.6% -9.0% 42% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 12 +0.6% -9.0% 42% 0% -9.3%
all 22 +0.8% -8.8% 64% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 0% -9.0%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses14 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage477d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 74¢ 75¢ $36 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $7 $0 +6%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $40 $0 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $37 +$3 +9%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $70 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $39 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $45 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $35 −$2 -5%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jun 24 $16 $0 +2%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 05 $15 $0 +1%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 03 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $13 $0 +2%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $3 $0 -8%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $15 $0 +3%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 22 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the AfD win between 20% and 22% of the vote in the German electio Mar 21 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $4 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $40 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 22h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 22h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 22h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $6 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $0 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 38h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $40 41h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $40 42h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $40 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $37 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $30 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $3 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $8 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $26 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $36 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $36 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $8 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.75 · official $36.75 (match) · 67 history records