Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:57:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5243…e18a crypto 952 markets active 2h ago coverage 61d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,056 (-33%) realized −$1,056 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate31%299W / 653L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day50.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$38
14 days−$224
30 days−$251
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$319
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 264 -15.1% -23.2% 25% 25% -16.1%
≤30d 806 -18.7% -26.5% 30% 23% -19.5%
≤90d 952 -17.0% -24.9% 31% 22% -18.7%
all 952 -17.0% -24.9% 31% 22% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.9% 22% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here -32.1% 17% -26.4%
15% -38.6% 15% -33.6%
20% -44.6% 14% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,056
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses299 / 653
Open positions0
Markets (closed)952 / 952
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day50.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 952 Trades
no open positions (404 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$5 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$6 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$6 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$5 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$7 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$6 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$6 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$5 +228%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records