Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:22:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5245…0e4f crypto 59 markets active 4d ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$32 (-7%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate58%34W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$39
14 days−$24
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$49
sports 15% +$12
other 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -3.0% -12.3% 56% 52% -18.5%
≤30d 58 +2.2% -7.6% 59% 55% -17.5%
≤90d 59 +0.4% -9.1% 58% 54% -18.2%
all 59 +0.4% -9.1% 58% 54% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 54% -18.2%
10% -17.8% 39% -26.0%
15% -25.8% 27% -33.2%
20% -33.0% 15% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses34 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage36d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $30 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$4 +19%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$7 +146%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 136 history records