Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:10:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5245…d550 other 40 markets active 4d ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$386 (+19%) realized +$386 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%8W / 27L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$126
14 days−$126
30 days−$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 71% −$227
sports 13% −$88
world 9% +$734
other 7% −$19
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +1.1% -8.5% 29% 29% -39.8%
≤30d 17 +1.1% -8.5% 29% 29% -39.8%
≤90d 24 -17.5% -25.3% 25% 25% -9.3%
all 35 +22.9% +11.2% 23% 23% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.2% 23% -5.2%
10% +0.5% 23% -14.3%
15% -9.2% 23% -22.6%
20% -18.1% 23% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$221 vs −$51 · ×4.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$386
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses8 / 27
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)35 / 40
History coverage115d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 41¢ 46¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$12 +238%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$10 +250%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$23 +442%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $51 +$100 +197%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $167 −$165 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 06 $25 −$24 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 06 $30 −$29 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 06 $25 −$24 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 06 $60 −$59 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 06 $50 −$49 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 06 $50 −$48 -97%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 06 $223 +$360 +162%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 14 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 08 $289 +$346 +120%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 28 $30 +$896 +2988%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 4d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 13d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 14d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 14d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 14d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY Yes 3¢ $25 72d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? BUY Yes 7¢ $30 72d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? BUY Yes 10¢ $25 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.56 · official $39.57 (match) · 62 history records