Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:48:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
52 0x524d…4495 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$920 (+11%) realized +$3,788 · open −$2,868
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 14L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$387per market
Trades / day38.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$3,010now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$1,064
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +33.7% +21.0% 12% 12% +28.9%
≤30d 16 +33.7% +21.0% 12% 12% +28.9%
≤90d 16 +33.7% +21.0% 12% 12% +28.9%
all 16 +33.7% +21.0% 12% 12% +28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.0% 12% +28.9%
10% ← realistic here +9.4% 12% +16.6%
15% -1.2% 12% +5.3%
20% -10.9% 12% -5.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +167% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,662 vs −$129 · ×12.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$3,010
Realized+$3,788
Unrealized−$2,868
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 14
Open positions29
Markets (closed)16 / 21
History coverage3d
Avg bet$387
Trades / day38.5
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? No 50¢ 78¢ $690 $1,082 +$392 (+57%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 17¢ $481 $854 +$373 (+78%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $441 $286 −$154 (-35%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $202 $218 +$16 (+8%)
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 1, 2026? No 39¢ 68¢ $91 $162 +$71 (+78%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $141 $155 +$14 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $92 $68 −$24 (-26%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $561 $56 −$505 (-90%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $54 $38 −$16 (-30%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $35 $10 −$26 (-73%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $444 $7 −$437 (-98%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $35 $6 −$29 (-83%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $35 $3 −$32 (-91%)
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $441 $2 −$439 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $441 $2 −$439 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $441 $2 −$439 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $441 $2 −$439 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $441 $2 −$439 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $38 $1 −$37 (-98%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Jun 28 $166 +$2,720 +1641%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $118 −$36 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $580 −$167 -29%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 26 $228 −$20 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $909 +$604 +66%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 26 $593 −$568 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $745 −$714 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$15 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $89 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $46 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $366 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $33 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $224 2h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $206 2h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $287 2h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $201 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $208 2h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $1,194 2h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $773 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $171 7h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $80 13h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $82 20h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $412 20h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $53 23h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $86 23h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 1, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $93 23h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $704 23h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $58 24h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 24h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $35 24h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $35 24h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $30 24h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $35 24h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $30 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,010.36 · official $3,011.03 (match) · 114 history records