Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:28:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5252…6b84 weather 293 markets active 3d ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (113 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$62 (-11%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%79W / 214L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day112.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (113 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-42.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 274 -31.7% -38.2% 29% 29% -18.3%
≤30d 293 -36.2% -42.2% 27% 27% -21.2%
≤90d 293 -36.2% -42.2% 27% 27% -21.2%
all 293 -36.2% -42.2% 27% 27% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover112.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.2% 27% -21.2%
10% ← realistic here -47.8% 23% -28.7%
15% -52.8% 19% -35.6%
20% -57.4% 15% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -65% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses79 / 214
Open positions0
Markets (closed)293 / 293
History coverage5d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day112.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 293 Trades
no open positions (179 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $2 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$27 +872%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 +$15 +734%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$5 +150%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$19 +620%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 15 $2 +$16 +778%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 15 $2 +$2 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +81%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +21%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 15 $3 +$29 +910%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -16%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +23%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $3 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +104%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 5¢ $1 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 5¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 5¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY No 13¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY No 13¢ $1 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY No 14¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 65¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.43 · official $7.43 (match) · 633 history records