Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:55:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5256…0d43 sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24 (-7%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%16W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$37
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$16
other 44% −$15
crypto 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -20.3% -27.9% 48% 48% -21.7%
≤30d 31 -9.4% -18.0% 52% 48% -16.9%
≤90d 31 -9.4% -18.0% 52% 48% -16.9%
all 31 -9.4% -18.0% 52% 48% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 48% -16.9%
10% -25.9% 45% -24.8%
15% -33.0% 23% -32.1%
20% -39.6% 16% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses16 / 15
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage15d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovi Jun 18 $5 $0 -8%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 AND England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Jun 17 $4 $0 -10%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +57%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +21%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $7 +$2 +31%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $17 +$6 +36%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 −$20 -55%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $29 +$7 +24%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 +$2 +34%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $17 +$10 +57%
Greece vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$3 -57%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $17 $0 -3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $12 +$8 +62%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $12 +$3 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $29 +$7 +24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Mozambique win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $11 +$3 +27%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 06 $5 $0 -5%
Indonesia vs. Oman: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $5 $0 -3%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 04 $12 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovi SELL 37¢ $4 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovi BUY 39¢ $5 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND Czechia vs. South Africa: Czech BUY 32¢ $5 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 AND England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to SELL 34¢ $4 13h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 AND England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to BUY 37¢ $4 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 45¢ $10 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 39h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $5 39h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $7 47h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $23 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $23 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $17 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 83¢ $16 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $36 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $29 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $9 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $7 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $17 4d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL No 77¢ $17 4d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $17 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $17 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $12 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $12 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $17 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 7d
Will Mozambique win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 93¢ $14 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $5.00 · 65 history records