Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:48:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5257…f324 sports 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11,756 (+9%) realized +$11,769 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%51W / 53L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$1,239per market
Trades / day25.8pace
Fees−$1,879est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,691
7 days−$5,503
14 days+$12,517
30 days+$9,155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$13,657
other 8% −$4,516
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -19.6% -27.3% 38% 38% -21.9%
≤30d 104 -0.1% -9.6% 49% 49% -3.1%
≤90d 104 -0.1% -9.6% 49% 49% -3.1%
all 104 -0.1% -9.6% 49% 49% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 49% -3.1%
10% -18.2% 49% -12.4%
15% ← realistic here -26.1% 48% -20.8%
20% -33.4% 42% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$1,535) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,371 vs −$1,147 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$1,188
Realized+$11,769
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses51 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$1,879
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 106
History coverage22d
Avg bet$1,239
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $1,201 $1,188 −$13 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,901 −$1,869 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $774 +$1,134 +146%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $861 −$842 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,010 −$995 -98%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $1,138 −$1,119 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,014 −$997 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $478 +$538 +112%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,021 −$1,010 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $481 −$474 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,018 −$1,009 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,037 +$1,643 +158%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Almería end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,244 +$2,763 +222%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $1,155 +$846 +73%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $1,510 −$1,490 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $1,036 −$1,018 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,562 +$2,389 +93%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3,279 +$1,842 +56%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $3,033 −$3,032 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1,980 +$1,017 +51%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2,624 +$2,624 +100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,469 −$2,430 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,101 −$1,089 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,055 −$1,038 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $1,347 −$1,334 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,161 +$1,826 +157%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2,216 −$1,704 -77%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,021 +$379 +37%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $560 −$560 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $500 −$490 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $475 +$541 +114%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $1,110 +$918 +83%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $998 +$722 +72%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $2,233 −$2,189 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2,003 +$5,000 +250%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $920 −$908 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $486 −$486 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $515 −$510 -99%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $505 +$418 +83%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $996 −$978 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2,804 +$3,915 +140%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $601 +$918 +153%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $504 −$499 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $526 +$385 +73%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $972 +$2,042 +210%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $1,645 −$1,630 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $505 +$510 +101%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $2,554 +$2,457 +96%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,452 +$2,612 +180%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $2,035 −$1,553 -76%
Blaublitz Akita vs. Kagoshima United FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $521 −$521 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $1,220 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 44¢ $1,901 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 37¢ $20 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 37¢ $2 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 40¢ $752 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $112 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $749 22h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 49¢ $1,010 22h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY No 44¢ $1,138 22h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $1,014 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $80 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $6 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $120 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $10 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $500 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $6 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $20 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $34 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $50 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $153 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $21 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $478 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 62¢ $1,021 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 49¢ $481 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $14 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,187.89 · official $1,187.89 (match) · 628 history records