Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:50:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
52 0x5258…4f34 sports 286 markets active 2h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,280 (+6%) realized +$1,291 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%162W / 123L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$370
7 days+$815
14 days+$1,195
30 days+$1,196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$970
other 28% +$256
crypto 2% +$73
world 1% +$99
weather 1% −$48
culture 1% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +63.1% +47.6% 69% 69% +46.3%
≤30d 43 +43.0% +29.4% 56% 56% +22.7%
≤90d 132 +31.7% +19.2% 60% 60% +16.7%
all 285 +14.0% +3.2% 57% 55% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.2% 55% -1.5%
10% -6.7% 50% -10.9%
15% -15.7% 41% -19.5%
20% -24.0% 35% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$49 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$1,291
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses162 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions1
Markets (closed)285 / 286
History coverage181d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $20 $9 −$11 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $304 +$128 +42%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $51 +$50 +98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $203 +$142 +70%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 +$50 +70%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $132 +$139 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$71 +139%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $254 +$246 +97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$73 +237%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$111 +361%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $203 +$222 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $51 +$84 +165%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $41 −$40 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $203 +$232 +114%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $31 +$51 +165%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $10 +$101 +980%
Albania vs. Israel: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $101 −$100 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $51 +$10 +20%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline May 31 $31 +$37 +121%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $204 −$200 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $41 −$40 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $51 −$50 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $152 +$98 +65%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $151 +$57 +38%
Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score May 23 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $20 +$44 +216%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $41 +$38 +93%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $41 +$77 +188%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $151 −$150 -99%
Racing Club de Lens vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5 May 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC end in a draw? May 12 $41 +$92 +226%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $51 −$50 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $51 +$33 +65%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score May 11 $20 +$44 +214%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 10 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $288 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $51 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $152 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 48¢ $145 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $152 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $203 32h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $71 32h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $122 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $51 4d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $132 4d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $254 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 5d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $41 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 90¢ $142 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 6d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $51 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $425 7d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $51 8d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $203 8d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 9d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $41 9d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 9d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 9d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $41 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.72 · official $8.72 (match) · 640 history records