Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:42:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x525a…f185 world 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-2%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%13W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$17
politics 19% $0
other 14% $0
sports 7% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -7.6% -16.4% 14% 0% -21.0%
≤30d 17 -6.4% -15.3% 18% 0% -12.6%
≤90d 17 -6.4% -15.3% 18% 0% -12.6%
all 52 -2.0% -11.4% 25% 0% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -11.0%
10% -19.8% 0% -19.5%
15% -27.6% 0% -27.3%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses13 / 39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage268d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 47¢ 40¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $3 $0 -1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $7 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $25 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $28 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 22 $33 −$17 -52%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $78 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -53%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $131 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $44 $0 -1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 17 $7 $0 +5%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 11 $2 $0 +7%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Sumy by December 31? Oct 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic a Oct 09 $21 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 09 $2 $0 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? Oct 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Oct 07 $18 $0 -0%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 07 $6 $0 -6%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 07 $34 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 07 $1 $0 -4%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Oct 06 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $21 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Oct 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Oct 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Oct 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Oct 04 $8 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 02 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $25 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $25 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $25 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 31h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $7 33h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $7 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $1 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $24 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $25 47h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $28 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $28 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $25 9d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $25 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $9 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $1 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $6 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $16 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $7 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $9 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $14 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $31 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $45 12d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $40 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.47 · official $25.19 (match) · 171 history records