Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:38:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x525b…c7c7 sports 24 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7,326 (-46%) realized −$7,326 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%8W / 16L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$658per market
Trades / day48.0pace
Fees−$238est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$7,417
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-52.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -47.9% -52.9% 33% 33% -52.4%
≤30d 24 -47.9% -52.9% 33% 33% -52.4%
≤90d 24 -47.9% -52.9% 33% 33% -52.4%
all 24 -47.9% -52.9% 33% 33% -52.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -52.9% 33% -52.4%
10% -57.4% 29% -57.0%
15% ← realistic here -61.5% 21% -61.1%
20% -65.3% 17% -64.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$1,401) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -72% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$487 vs −$707 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,326
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses8 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$238
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$658
Trades / day48.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2,956 +$3,235 +109%
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 12 $331 −$329 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,278 −$2,240 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $102 +$18 +18%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 12 $185 +$45 +25%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 12 $74 +$24 +32%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $1,829 −$1,681 -92%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $58 +$22 +39%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $258 −$254 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $340 −$340 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Ameri Jun 11 $55 +$48 +86%
BC Neptunas Klaipeda vs. BC Lietkabelis Panevezys Jun 11 $354 +$248 +70%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $1,763 −$1,737 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $408 +$253 +62%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $248 −$244 -98%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $1,409 −$1,401 -99%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 11 $347 −$343 -99%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 11 $40 −$39 -98%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 11 $14 −$14 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $708 −$693 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $354 −$347 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,657 −$1,629 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez BUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 81¢ $240 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 47¢ $1,233 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 44¢ $1,134 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 44¢ $1,144 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 47¢ $1,723 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 27¢ $6 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 22¢ $5 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 50¢ $15 5d
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez BUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 79¢ $91 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 27¢ $5 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 38¢ $16 5d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 69¢ $70 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 67¢ $51 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 72¢ $20 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 72¢ $32 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 72¢ $6 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 47¢ $23 5d
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 75¢ $74 5d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 50¢ $258 5d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 76¢ $80 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 54¢ $340 5d
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) BUY Hurricanes 15¢ $10 5d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 26¢ $35 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 58¢ $71 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 50¢ $41 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 44¢ $54 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 41¢ $77 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 49¢ $1,763 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 43¢ $1,548 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records