Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:31:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x525d…1f1b sports 388 markets active 2d ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$474 (-2%) realized −$474 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate55%213W / 175L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$292est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$711
7 days−$884
14 days−$1,887
30 days−$1,306
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$402
crypto 15% −$435
other 0% +$31
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -30.6% -37.2% 36% 31% -38.2%
≤30d 157 -26.9% -33.9% 41% 31% -17.5%
≤90d 388 -11.3% -19.7% 55% 42% -12.4%
all 388 -11.3% -19.7% 55% 42% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 42% -12.4%
10% -27.4% 32% -20.8%
15% -34.4% 22% -28.4%
20% -40.9% 15% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$32 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$474
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses213 / 175
Est. fees paid−$292
Open positions0
Markets (closed)388 / 388
History coverage87d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 388 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $65 −$65 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $148 −$84 -57%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $88 −$88 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $120 −$29 -24%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $154 −$154 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET Jun 15 $149 −$112 -75%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $83 −$82 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$3 -30%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $149 −$85 -57%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $102 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $130 +$107 +83%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $40 +$25 +63%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $30 −$2 -7%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $119 +$13 +11%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $90 −$90 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $6 +$2 +30%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $168 −$51 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET Jun 11 $100 +$50 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3AM ET Jun 11 $55 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $180 −$180 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET Jun 10 $60 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $42 +$29 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Jun 10 $42 +$12 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 10 $125 −$11 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $111 −$61 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $12 +$17 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET Jun 10 $132 +$79 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $49 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8AM ET Jun 10 $99 −$6 -6%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $109 +$199 +183%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $65 +$44 +69%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $27 −$27 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 08 $100 −$13 -13%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $119 −$80 -67%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A Jun 08 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 41¢ $65 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 26¢ $24 42h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 26¢ $40 42h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $117 42h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $1 42h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $4 42h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $1 42h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $12 42h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $3 42h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $1 42h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $4 42h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $5 42h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 52¢ $83 43h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 12¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 12¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 12¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 12¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 42¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $9 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 32¢ $90 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 62¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 68¢ $61 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 27¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 27¢ $16 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 27¢ $11 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 27¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1547 history records