Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:51:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x525d…cce9 other 237 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 228L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$19
14 days−$30
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$34
sports 22% −$21
politics 8% −$6
culture 7% −$8
crypto 7% −$6
economics 7% −$6
world 3% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 237 -0.1% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)237 / 237
History coverage130d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 237 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $246 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $138 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $467 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $308 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $257 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 19 $192 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $286 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $225 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $186 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $430 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $220 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $387 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $453 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $278 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 17 $158 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $470 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $591 −$2 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $142 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $117 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $778 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $168 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $569 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 15 $167 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $170 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $323 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $335 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $932 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $363 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $331 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $556 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $314 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $303 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $204 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $256 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $255 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $133 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $203 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $159 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $46 37m
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $47 1h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $47 3h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $47 5h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $47 6h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $47 7h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $47 9h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $47 10h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $47 12h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $47 13h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $47 16h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $47 17h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $40 22h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $8 22h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $47 24h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $47 26h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $47 30h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 34h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 35h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $47 37h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $48 38h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 43h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 44h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 47h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $48 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $48 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1355 history records