Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
52 0x525e…ee0d other 48 markets active 3d ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$598 (+28%) realized +$488 · open +$110
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%16W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$619now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$342
14 days+$375
30 days+$933
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$889
other 24% +$51
sports 9% −$99
politics 6% −$95
weather 6% −$71
crypto 5% +$1
economics 3% −$62
finance 3% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +188.7% +161.2% 50% 50% +235.9%
≤30d 8 +210.9% +181.3% 62% 62% +211.7%
≤90d 11 +146.6% +123.1% 55% 55% +178.5%
all 46 +19.0% +7.7% 35% 33% +18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.7% 33% +18.9%
10% -2.6% 33% +7.6%
15% -12.0% 33% -2.8%
20% -20.6% 33% -12.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +208% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +69% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$34 · ×2.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$619
Realized+$488
Unrealized+$110
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses16 / 30
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage152d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 70¢ 86¢ $500 $618 +$118 (+24%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 15 $11 −$10 -93%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $45 −$45 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$35 +344%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $60 +$362 +604%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $46 +$33 +71%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $104 −$102 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $50 +$52 +103%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 25 $77 +$608 +789%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 20 to Apr 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 20 to Apr 01 $20 −$7 -33%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 22 $50 +$29 +59%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $49 +$4 +8%
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026? Mar 04 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 20 to Mar 01 $7 +$19 +257%
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland Feb 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 18? Feb 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the 2026 State of the Union address be between 80 and 90 minutes Feb 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the 2026 State of the Union address be between 90 and 100 minutes Feb 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on February 17? Feb 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on February 17? Feb 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the 2026 State of the Union address last 100 minutes or longer? Feb 25 $23 +$61 +270%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 18? Feb 19 $18 +$44 +245%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026 Feb 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026 Feb 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,000-$7,100 in January? Feb 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Feb 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026 Feb 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026? Feb 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in January? Feb 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in January? Feb 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the January 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%? Feb 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the January 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%? Feb 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on February 6, 2 Feb 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.0 and 41.4 on February 6, 2 Feb 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 2AM ET Feb 16 $51 −$51 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Feb 16 $87 −$87 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 16 $65 −$65 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in January? Feb 13 $24 +$66 +275%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 10 $35 +$43 +122%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,900-$7,000 in January? Jan 31 $29 +$41 +138%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-01-28? Jan 29 $100 +$52 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? Jan 21 $17 +$52 +300%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 20 $31 +$30 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $45 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $45 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 22¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $500 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $422 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? SELL Yes 99¢ $79 8d
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? BUY Yes 58¢ $8 9d
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 9d
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 9d
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? BUY Yes 58¢ $23 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $60 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 29¢ $50 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 21¢ $54 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 16d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $100 16d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $46 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $27 79d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $50 79d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? SELL Yes 98¢ $79 87d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $21 100d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $29 101d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $53 106d
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $70 106d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $49 108d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 20 to SELL Yes 25¢ $4 117d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 20 to SELL Yes 25¢ $2 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $619.11 · official $619.11 (match) · 120 history records