Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:42:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
52 0x525f…6401 sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$2,613 (+39%) realized +$2,615 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$242now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1,013
30 days+$2,552
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$2,552
other 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 29 +24.3% +12.4% 52% 52% +26.8%
≤90d 29 +24.3% +12.4% 52% 52% +26.8%
all 29 +24.3% +12.4% 52% 52% +26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.4% 52% +26.8%
10% +1.7% 52% +14.7%
15% -8.2% 52% +3.6%
20% -17.2% 48% -6.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +55% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$337 vs −$179 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$242
Realized+$2,615
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage21d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $244 $242 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $130 −$128 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $143 +$679 +473%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $244 −$240 -98%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $495 +$852 +172%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 14 $273 −$268 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $233 −$230 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $356 +$211 +59%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $143 −$140 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 12 $132 +$123 +93%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $294 −$290 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $400 +$535 +134%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Jun 12 $274 −$270 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $499 +$709 +142%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $203 +$161 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $396 −$388 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $152 +$166 +109%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $203 +$222 +109%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 11 $173 −$170 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $218 +$166 +76%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $102 +$297 +291%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $203 +$222 +109%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $111 −$109 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $338 +$370 +110%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $294 +$291 +99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $106 +$51 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $247 1h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $130 9d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $823 12d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 17¢ $143 12d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 34¢ $153 13d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $102 13d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 48¢ $142 13d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) SELL G2 100¢ $1,347 13d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY G2 36¢ $495 13d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) BUY MOUZ 39¢ $273 14d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 56¢ $233 14d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 22¢ $61 14d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 100¢ $567 14d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 62¢ $356 14d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 33¢ $143 14d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 19¢ $51 15d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) SELL Spirit 100¢ $255 15d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 55¢ $294 15d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Vitality 0¢ $10 15d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) BUY Spirit 51¢ $132 15d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $934 15d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $274 16d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 100¢ $1,208 16d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 100¢ $363 16d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 42¢ $400 16d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 31¢ $92 16d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 43¢ $153 16d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $254 16d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 55¢ $203 16d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 17¢ $87 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.93 · official $241.93 (match) · 52 history records