Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:21:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
52 0x5260…5306 sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,846 (+15%) realized +$1,846 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate91%20W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$522per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$1,841
other 9% +$2
crypto 8% +$1
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 -10.5% -19.0% 86% 14% -24.3%
all 22 +4.6% -5.4% 91% 27% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 27% +3.9%
10% -14.4% 18% -6.0%
15% -22.7% 18% -15.1%
20% -30.3% 14% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$900) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$128 vs −$362 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.55 per $1 lost it wins $3.55
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized+$1,846
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses20 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage194d
Avg bet$522
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? Jun 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $72 $0 +0%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 19 $226 −$225 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 14 $186 +$40 +21%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 23 $186 +$1 +0%
Thunder vs. Clippers Apr 09 $184 +$2 +1%
Pistons vs. Thunder Mar 31 $177 +$7 +4%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs Mar 02 $1,932 +$1,086 +56%
Rockets vs. Magic Feb 27 $625 +$14 +2%
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls Feb 27 $1,281 +$13 +1%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 27 $290 +$130 +45%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Feb 18 $725 +$1 +0%
Thunder vs. Lakers Feb 12 $1,579 +$196 +12%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 06 $900 +$679 +75%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winner Feb 03 $504 +$396 +79%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner Feb 02 $500 −$500 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Wizards Jan 29 $1,002 +$2 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of January 12 above $215? Jan 17 $1,001 +$1 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 02 $44 $0 +0%
Aster all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $61 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $241 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $653 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $59 1h
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? BUY No 100¢ $43 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $72 28d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q BUY BNK FEARX 82¢ $226 37d
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 82¢ $186 43d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 100¢ $186 64d
Thunder vs. Clippers BUY Thunder 99¢ $184 78d
Pistons vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 96¢ $177 87d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 64¢ $1,932 116d
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls BUY Trail Blazers 99¢ $1,281 119d
Rockets vs. Magic BUY Rockets 98¢ $625 119d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Weibo Gaming 69¢ $290 121d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals BUY Invictus Gaming 100¢ $725 133d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 89¢ $1,579 136d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Top Esports 57¢ $900 140d
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 56¢ $504 143d
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 86¢ $200 143d
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 85¢ $300 143d
Trail Blazers vs. Wizards BUY Wizards 100¢ $1,002 149d
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of January 12 above $215? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,001 162d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $653 182d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $241 193d
Aster all time high by December 31? BUY No 98¢ $61 193d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $44 193d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.44 · official $115.44 (match) · 46 history records