Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:56:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5261…74ad weather 96 markets active 13h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-3%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%11W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$10
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 92% −$27
other 5% −$9
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-35.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 29% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 33 -2.9% -12.2% 12% 0% -11.6%
≤90d 95 -28.2% -35.1% 12% 0% -13.1%
all 95 -28.2% -35.1% 12% 0% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.1% 0% -13.1%
10% -41.3% 0% -21.4%
15% -47.0% 0% -29.0%
20% -52.2% 0% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -55% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses11 / 84
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage58d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? Jun 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 6? Jun 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on June 6? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on June 3? Jun 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 2? Jun 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 1? Jun 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 1? Jun 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by May 31? Jun 01 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 30? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on May 29? May 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 29? May 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on May 28? May 29 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 74°F or higher on May 27? May 28 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on May 27? May 28 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma May 21 $15 $0 -0%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026? May 21 $14 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 16? May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on May 17? May 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on May 16? May 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 15? May 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 14? May 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 14? May 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 44-45°F on May 6? May 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on May 6? May 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C or higher on May 6? May 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 6? May 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 6? May 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on May 5? May 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 5? May 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on May 5? May 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on May 5? May 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on May May 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on May 5? May 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May May 05 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY Yes $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $12 36h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 SELL No 99¢ $13 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 BUY No 98¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $14 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $15 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $14 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 11? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 11? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $11 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? BUY Yes $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? BUY No 98¢ $12 9d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes $0 9d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 90¢ $10 9d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 98¢ $12 10d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes $0 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.00 · official $37.00 (match) · 312 history records