Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:39:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

52
0x5262…4dc0
crypto · 94 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$35 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$47 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12
Realized−$47
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses26 / 64
Open positions4
Markets (closed)90 / 94
History coverage29d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 4 History 90 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$22
14 days−$39
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+221%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -64%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -53%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 30? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -79%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -55%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -4%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +62%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -73%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 -0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $2 +$5 +244%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 04 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 04 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 50% −$36
world 44% −$11
other 6% $0
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL No 32¢ $1 16h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 16h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 16h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 19h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 19h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY No 26¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-38.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -35.7% -41.8% 23% 20% -39.8%
≤30d 90 -31.9% -38.4% 29% 24% -32.6%
≤90d 90 -31.9% -38.4% 29% 24% -32.6%
all 90 -31.9% -38.4% 29% 24% -32.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.4% 24% -32.6%
10% -44.3% 17% -39.0%
15% -49.7% 14% -44.9%
20% -54.6% 11% -50.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.93 · official $11.93 (match) · 318 history records