Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:03:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
52 0x5262…ea0a sports 765 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+1%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate70%532W / 232L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$23
14 days+$26
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$44
other 47% +$11
world 1% +$24
crypto 1% +$6
politics 1% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +21.4% +9.8% 100% 75% +5.3%
≤30d 107 -2.9% -12.2% 75% 64% -12.3%
≤90d 307 -3.0% -12.2% 71% 67% -9.3%
all 764 -0.5% -10.0% 70% 68% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 68% -9.3%
10% -18.6% 65% -18.0%
15% -26.5% 46% -25.9%
20% -33.7% 19% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses532 / 232
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)764 / 765
History coverage141d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 764 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $17 +$1 +6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $16 +$3 +16%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $16 +$2 +11%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $16 +$3 +16%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$2 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$1 +8%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $9 +$4 +46%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $9 +$2 +27%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 +$2 +12%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $9 +$3 +29%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $16 +$2 +10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $16 +$2 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $16 +$2 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 +$5 +46%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $17 +$5 +28%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$2 +11%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $18 +$1 +6%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $5 +$3 +64%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $17 +$2 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $17 +$2 +12%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $17 +$1 +8%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $17 +$3 +17%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +27%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $9 +$4 +42%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +32%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 +$3 +29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$3 +17%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $18 +$5 +26%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 +$4 +40%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 +$4 +40%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $12 +$5 +44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $14 +$6 +45%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 +$2 +17%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $17 +$5 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $17 3d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY No 90¢ $16 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $16 6d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 86¢ $16 6d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $5 6d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $5 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 69¢ $5 6d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 94¢ $15 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $15 6d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $9 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $15 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $9 7d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $9 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 91¢ $16 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $16 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 8d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $5 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $16 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 8d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $17 8d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $15 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $11 8d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 90¢ $18 8d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $18 8d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $18 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $17 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $5 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 9d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.05 · official $10.05 (match) · 1570 history records